I came across this video recently that aptly summarizes the developments that have led to our current predicament. It turns out that it's part of a promotional campaign for The End of Growth, a book which, predictably enough, argues we are entering a permanent era of no growth. The book in turn is sponsored by the Post-Carbon Institute.
It's worth asking whether growth can be sustained and, if not, whether that change is already upon us, as both answers would have profound implications for our way of life. This is not least of all because it would result in a zero-sum game, the subject of another book.
At first I wasn't particularly convinced that growth could already be coming to an end, but feared that that was only because society and my education had trained me to think otherwise. I even questioned the idea that growth can't go on indefinitely. I'm still not a convert to the idea that the economy is stalling, if only because the theory of no growth requires that environments don't change. As long as shocks still rock our system, and they always will, whether in the form of natural disasters or changing demographics, there will always be some lost ground to make up for.
I also wonder whether it wouldn't be possible to continue expanding economically on the basis of abstract goods that require no increase in material inputs. Equipped with our faculties as humans and a fixed level of capital, we could confer something of value, perhaps even something that makes people more productive, in the form of providing advice or inspiring others, to name just a few. It would only require mobilizing existing resources in a different way. Instead of watching videos, for instance, you could spend an evening disseminating best work habits.
Even this area of activity, however, is subject to diminishing returns. As a result, although we might not see an end to growth, we will at minimum witness it taper off. What we understand least is when and how quickly this condition will materialize. The level of uncertainty surrounding its timing might be sufficient to warrant taking the cautious path and preparing for such developments in advance. It makes me wonder whether that's what the Post-Carbon Institute is hoping to precipitate through its work, quite possibly by making premature predictions and consciously so.
There's a lot to explore on this topic and I've only hit upon the tip of the iceberg. Because of the pressing need to adjust to the end of growth, as PCI puts it, they've made excerpts from the book available on their site. I'm already in the process of reading them over and will likely add more thoughts on the issue at a later point.
It's worth asking whether growth can be sustained and, if not, whether that change is already upon us, as both answers would have profound implications for our way of life. This is not least of all because it would result in a zero-sum game, the subject of another book.
At first I wasn't particularly convinced that growth could already be coming to an end, but feared that that was only because society and my education had trained me to think otherwise. I even questioned the idea that growth can't go on indefinitely. I'm still not a convert to the idea that the economy is stalling, if only because the theory of no growth requires that environments don't change. As long as shocks still rock our system, and they always will, whether in the form of natural disasters or changing demographics, there will always be some lost ground to make up for.
I also wonder whether it wouldn't be possible to continue expanding economically on the basis of abstract goods that require no increase in material inputs. Equipped with our faculties as humans and a fixed level of capital, we could confer something of value, perhaps even something that makes people more productive, in the form of providing advice or inspiring others, to name just a few. It would only require mobilizing existing resources in a different way. Instead of watching videos, for instance, you could spend an evening disseminating best work habits.
Even this area of activity, however, is subject to diminishing returns. As a result, although we might not see an end to growth, we will at minimum witness it taper off. What we understand least is when and how quickly this condition will materialize. The level of uncertainty surrounding its timing might be sufficient to warrant taking the cautious path and preparing for such developments in advance. It makes me wonder whether that's what the Post-Carbon Institute is hoping to precipitate through its work, quite possibly by making premature predictions and consciously so.
There's a lot to explore on this topic and I've only hit upon the tip of the iceberg. Because of the pressing need to adjust to the end of growth, as PCI puts it, they've made excerpts from the book available on their site. I'm already in the process of reading them over and will likely add more thoughts on the issue at a later point.
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